India’s mobile service revenue to grow at 3% CAGR until 2028


GlobalData noted that 5G technology is expected to represent nearly 45% of the total mobile subscriptions in India by the end of 2028

India’s mobile services revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from $27.7 billion in 2023 to $32.6 billion in 2028, chiefly driven by the growth in mobile data services segment, according to a recent study by GlobalData.

GlobalData’s India Mobile Broadband Forecast study revealed that the mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2023 and 2028, owing to the growing consumer preference for internet-based communication services and the subsequent decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

The study noted that mobile data services will offset this decline in mobile voice service revenue during the forecast period.

Mobile data service revenue in India will increase at a CAGR of 7.1% between 2023 and 2028, driven by the growing availability of 4G/5G networks across the country, increasing consumption of mobile data services, continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding-5G subscriptions, according to the GlobalData study.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, telecom analyst at GlobalData, said: “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 16.4GB in 2023 to 37.4GB in 2028, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by MNOs.”

According to GlobalData, 4G technology will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2028, driven by the operators’ LTE network expansions.

Meanwhile, 5G subscriptions are forecast to increase at a fast rate over the forecast period and are expected to represent nearly 45% of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2028.

“Reliance Jio will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network developments and expansion across the country catering to the rising demand for high-speed services by customers,” the analyst added.

Reliance Jio Infocomm has already completed the rollout of 5G technology in India. The carrier has been rapidly expanding its 5G network using Standalone (SA) architecture since October 2022. Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel previously said it expected to cover the entire country with 5G technology by March 2024.

Rival operator Vodafone Idea is expected to launch its 5G network this year and is currently in negotiations with vendors for 5G contracts, according to recent reports.

In April, Vodafone Idea said it had concluded its $2.16 billion follow-on public offer (FPO), while it had also raised about $648.5 million from 74 anchor investors. Vodafone Idea recently said it expects to use the equity and debt funding to deploy its 5G service across India within six to seven months of securing the funds.



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